Will Self-Driving Trucks Replace Truck Drivers? A CDL School Owner’s Take

The Question I Hear in Almost Every Class

Before my wife Priscilla and I opened CDL School Inc., I made my living behind the wheel. Now I spend my days training new drivers at our Tennessee CDL School in Nashville. And one question comes up in almost every class: “Are self-driving trucks going to take my job?”

It’s a fair question. AI and driverless trucks show up in the news all the time. If you’re about to put your time and money into CDL training, you want to know the career will still be there when you finish.

So here’s my honest take. Self-driving trucks are real, and they’re growing. But because of the liability involved, I believe someone is always going to have to be in that truck. If anything, this technology is going to make our job as drivers easier and safer. Let me walk you through why I see it that way.

 

What’s Really Happening With Self-Driving Trucks

I’m not going to pretend this technology isn’t coming. A few companies are already hauling real freight with self-driving trucks. Most of that work is happening on long, straight highways in Texas and other Sun Belt states.

Aurora is one of the biggest names. It started commercial driverless runs between Dallas and Houston in 2025, and it expects to have about 200 driverless trucks running by the end of 2026. Kodiak is running trucks on the same Dallas to Houston corridor, and Volvo plans fully driverless runs in Texas in early 2027.

Those numbers sound big until you look at the whole industry. The U.S. had about 2.2 million heavy and tractor-trailer truck driving jobs in 2024. A couple hundred driverless trucks is a very small slice of what’s on the road. Most of America’s freight still moves the way it always has: with a trained driver in the seat.

Why Someone Will Still Be in That Truck

A loaded tractor-trailer can weigh up to 80,000 pounds. When something goes wrong with that much weight, someone has to answer for it. Trucking companies, insurance carriers, and truck makers all know that, and it makes them careful.

We’ve already seen that play out. Just a few weeks after Aurora launched its first driverless runs in 2025, the company that built the trucks asked Aurora to put a person back in the driver’s seat. Aurora agreed. That tells me even the companies building this technology still want a human in the cab.

There are other reasons a person still matters:

• Weather. Aurora’s system was not built to run in bad weather. In those conditions, the truck pulls over, and a person helps finish the trip. Anyone who has driven I-40 or I-24 in a Tennessee ice storm knows how much judgment that takes.
• Rules. The U.S. does not have one set of federal rules for self-driving trucks. States are taking different paths, so companies can’t just roll these trucks out everywhere.
• The work beyond driving. Someone still has to do the pre-trip inspection, handle a breakdown, back into a tight dock, and talk with the customer. A computer can steer, but it can’t do all of that.

How This Technology Makes Our Job Easier and Safer

When I first started driving, the truck didn’t do much to help you. Today’s trucks are different, and I see AI and automation as the next step in that same direction.

Safety systems are a good example. Many trucks now have forward collision warning and automatic emergency braking. These systems use cameras and radar to watch the road ahead. A study by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety found that trucks with collision warning had 44% fewer rear-end crashes. Trucks with automatic emergency braking had 41% fewer. That’s technology working with the driver, not replacing them.

The same goes for automatic transmissions. Many carriers now run trucks without a stick shift, which takes a lot of strain out of a long day. If you’re weighing your options, our post on manual vs. automatic CDL training breaks down the choice.

Self-driving trucks could help drivers, too. Many experts expect a “hub-to-hub” setup. In this model, a self-driving truck covers the long highway miles between hubs. Human drivers handle the first and last miles: pickups, deliveries, and city streets. A study from Uber Freight found this could shift more drivers into local and regional work, which often means more nights at home. And it’s still good money. Truck drivers earn a median of about $57,440 a year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

What the Job Numbers Say

You don’t have to take my word for it. The government’s own numbers point to steady demand for CDL drivers:

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects heavy and tractor-trailer truck driving jobs to grow 4% from 2024 to 2034. That’s about as fast as the average for all jobs.
• The BLS projects about 237,600 openings for these drivers each year, on average, over that decade.
• McKinsey projects that about 13% of heavy-duty trucks on U.S. roads will be autonomous by 2035. Flip that around, and the large majority of trucks will still need a driver.

There’s also a wave of retirements coming. Uber Freight’s research points to hundreds of thousands of drivers retiring over the next decade. Its study found that self-driving trucks are more likely to help fill those gaps than to replace the drivers who are already working.

My Advice If You’re Thinking About CDL School in Nashville

If you’re on the fence because of self-driving trucks, here’s what I tell students in our Nashville classes:

1. Get the right license. A Class A CDL opens the most doors. Our guide to the different CDL classes explains why.
2. Learn the fundamentals cold. Inspections, backing, space management, and trip planning are skills a computer can’t take from you.
3. Stay open to new technology. The drivers who learn the new safety systems will have an edge, not a disadvantage.
4. Pick a school that stays with you. We offer lifetime job placement assistance, so you’ll have help as the industry changes.

Our accelerated three-week program keeps class sizes small, so you get real time behind the wheel. If cost is a concern, we can walk you through your tuition assistance options.

Trucking is going to keep changing, the same way it always has. But I believe there will always be a seat in that cab for a well-trained driver. If you’re ready to find out if this career is right for you, request more information today or call us at (615) 492-1898.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will self-driving trucks change what students learn in CDL school?

Not right now. Federal Entry-Level Driver Training rules still require the same classroom and behind-the-wheel training for every new CDL driver.

When will self-driving trucks be common on U.S. highways?

No one knows for sure. Most companies plan to grow slowly over the next several years, starting with a small number of highway routes in warm-weather states.

Are self-driving trucks safer than human drivers?

It’s too early to say. Companies report strong early safety records, but their trucks have driven far fewer miles than human drivers have.

Which trucking jobs are hardest to automate?

Jobs with lots of stops, tight docks, and city streets are the hardest. Local delivery, flatbed, and tanker work also need hands-on skills like securing loads and handling product.

Do self-driving trucks still need inspections and maintenance?

Yes. Every truck still needs inspections, repairs, and fueling or charging, and someone has to handle problems on the road.

How can new drivers prepare for more technology in trucks?

Learn the basics well and get comfortable with the safety systems in newer trucks. Drivers who understand their equipment are better prepared for whatever changes come next.